A new AI electoral projection maps out a hypothetical 2028 US presidential race, highlighting major Republican shifts in the Midwest and Sun Belt states.
What Happened
An electoral analysis published this week by analysts at “Election Time” presented a detailed state-by-state breakdown of a hypothetical 2028 matchup, using historical voting data and demographic patterns to project results across all 50 states. The model assigned each state to categories—solid, likely, lean, and tilt—based on observed trends from recent elections and population movements.
The projection identified shifts in regions once considered reliably Democratic. States in the Upper Midwest, including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, were mapped as moving toward Republican categories based on consecutive Republican victories in 2016 and 2024. Ohio and Iowa, reflecting margins from the 2024 election, were placed in the solid Republican column under the model’s parameters.
The analysis also tracked demographic change across Sun Belt states. Texas, which has been identified as a competitive battleground in recent cycles, was modeled as returning to a solid Republican classification based on 2024 results. States with growing populations, such as Arizona and North Carolina, were assessed as likely Republican under the projection.